Super 15 rugby – one weird comp
Super 15 rugby is more than a little strange. Each team plays 16 games a season but not every other team in the competition.
Instead the kiwi teams bash themselves silly playing every other New Zealand team in local derbies while the Aussies get an armchair ride to the finals by beating the Rebels and the Reds week after week.
Take the Crusaders for example. No game against the Waratahs or Bulls. But home and away against the ‘Canes, Blues, Highlanders and Chiefs. That makes it far from clear who the best team in the comp is from simply reading the table.
So we run the numbers, playing close attention to just who plays who over the course of the season. We use our in-house method that assesses performance across wins, points scored and bonus points achieve. Other methods are certainly possible such as using a probit model which Seamus Hogan uses here at offsetting behaviour.
Our findings?
The ‘tahs come out tops but the Hurricanes move up into a playoff slot. The reason? One of the hardest draws in the comp including playing (and beating) the Crusaders twice and playing the ‘tahs and the Sharks away from home.
Strongest conference?
New Zealand. By a country mile. The Sport Loves Data ranking system gives 0 as a par score. Do better than that and you punch above your weight. Our system accounts for who plays who, and shows the kiwi teams are all average or better, making the New Zealand conference the hardest in the super 15.
posted by Kirdan Lees
Sport Loves Data 
Ah yes but who is going to win??
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