Still getting over the Knights’ comeback of the season.
Three minutes to go and Sisa Waqa scores his fourth try for the Storm to take their lead out to 30-20. Then Travis Waddell scores for Newcastle under the posts in the 78th leaving maybe not even two minutes to score a try to tie – converted try to win.
No problem. Akuila Uate scores in the corner and Kurt Gidley knocks over the conversion.
Biggest comeback of the season? Maybe. To be fair, the Sharks downing Brisbane after being down 22-0 with 27 minutes remaining could be more improbable haven gone pointless in their previous three games.
But still I was left wondering how hard it is two score two tries in three minutes. Turns out that right now games are running at 7.27 tries per game. Being kind that makes for about a 1/20 chance of a team scoring in any minute of the game.
It’s debatable just how long the Knights had between scoring the first and second try but pretty much it was turn around and score again within a minute. Roughly speaking, I’m sticking with a super tough one-in-four hundred chance of winning from where the Knights were – and that’s assuming Gidley makes the kick.
I got a bit worried about where in the game teams score tries. My sample of the last 50 odd games shows it’s surprisingly even over the 80 minutes. The last ten shows more tries as teams tire.
NRL try scoring picks up a little in the game’s last ten minutes